Extravagant Ones:
With unusually low temperatures (and new upper elevation snow added as recently as Monday of this week), as depicted in the Der Blog's updated E-10 Flow Chart (see link on right-hand side), unlike any of the past three years, water flows in our key rivers (the Bitterroot, the Blackfoot, and the Clark Fork of the Columbia) are actually dropping, not rising!
Moments ago I just got off the phone with Doug Persico, our land-based outfitter with the Rock Creek Mercantile, who confirmed that, indeed, the 2010 runoff is getting off to a slow start, witnessed by the fact that this morning it was 22 degrees outside along Rock Creek with its water temperature currently a nice, brisk 38 degrees.
Looking ahead , the long range forecast calls for Missoula daytime high temperatures creeping up from the 40's and 50's of recent weeks to the 60's next week and, thereafter, into the low 70's--and the latter is what is needed to spark the snow runoff.
Here's the math: Missoula is located right at 3500 ft above sea level; the upper snow pack is in the 8,000+ elevation; and temperature drops 3 degrees per 1,000 feet of increased elevation. Thus, a high of 50 in Missoula equates to a high of 35 in the mountain peaks with the desired 70 degrees in Missoula netting a brisk 55 degrees in the upper climes--just enough to spark the annual runoff.
Watch the redline on our graph to track the rise in daily high temperatures by roughly two days, such that as we begin to see 70 degree temperatures the graphed line will begin to climb (to around 2500 cfs, in my opinion) and then, as the upper snow fully melts off, the line will start to recede down (to around 1250 cfs, my bet) come the arrival of Group One and June 19th.
So, Joe, that's where the flow go!
RCR
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