January tidings, fellow Extravaganzers!
'Tis the time of year that we turn our eyes towards the accumulating snow pack in the Bitterroot Mountain range to begin our forecasting of what type of water conditions we might experience during Extravaganza 2010--and, indeed, over our prior seven years we have seen the gambit of excessively high waters (as in E-08 when local rivers around the Missoula area were so turbulent and high that we spend four of our fishing days trekking over the the Missouri River north of Helena [a 3 hour jaunt each way to great fishing, nonetheless!]) to excessively low waters (as in E-07 when the water levels were so low [and resulting water temperatures so high] that our last groups were arising when it was fully dark and getting off the rivers shortly after noon).
What we seek out is "normal" which, in weather-ese, is defined as the rolling 20 year average of snow pack and water levels, but, as we found out last year when water levels were indeed "normal" and "perfect", those levels need to receive "normal" water temperatures where, as last year, although the water levels were at norm, due to chilly upper level conditions, the water temperature remained unusually low such that bug activity and prime time fishing was delayed by several weeks.
Thus, the nirvana that we seek with modicums of annual success is a "normal" snow pack that results in a "normal" runoff come May and early June when the snow pack melts off and, hopefully, "normal" water temperatures. As noted above, each year is a bit different and, hence, much like poker (where if you were dealt the same hand each time you would quickly tire of the game), each year we are dealt a different weather hand upon which we base our fishing experience.
What does 2010 hold out for us, you ask?? Well, as in prior years, Montana has been experiencing and is going to continue to experience the result of a "moderate strength El Nino", where the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters is going to bring drier winter conditions to the Western Rockies. Indeed, a look at snow pack early returns bears truth to that prognosis where the snow pack average in the Bitterroot basin, as reported in Missoula's only decent paper of repute, The Missoulian, is 60% of normal.
From my perspective, that is great news! Too much water is just that, "too much" and to have too little fishable water leads to logical and obvious poor fishing conditions, such that I will settle for between 50% and 90% of normal any day of the week.
Thus, viva la Extravaganza as El Nino de 2010 greets its affectionate cousin, la Extravaganza of 2010!
Best to all in anticipation of it all,
Rock Creek Ron
p.s. More on "the runoff" and our desired prime fishing conditions in a later report.
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